Writing

Finding Winning Bets Part 2

The Leaky Bucket

Clients liked our work at Social Habit and left anyway. This is how we stopped the leaky bucket, and how we found the fix inside the business: paid ads, tracked from the first dollar and reported in each client's own numbers.

In early 2024, Social Habit started as a content and website agency. We shot the videos, ran the social accounts and built the sites. Clients liked the work, and many of them left anyway. They hired us for content and a website, but they evaluated our work on the calls, bookings and sales that came after. When those did not show up as a number they could see, our work looked like a nice-to-have that did not translate into sales, and the contract ended at renewal.

WHAT CLIENTS HIRED US FORContentA websiteWHAT THEY EVALUATED US ONCallsBookingsSales≠

We called it the leaky bucket: a retention problem. We signed new clients at the top and lost them out the bottom, and each lost client took with them what we spent to win them. Selling harder filled a leaky bucket faster. It did not fix the leak.

New clients signed at the topThe leaky bucketClients lost out the bottomeach took with them what we spent to win them

When clients are asked why they leave agencies, the answers are consistent. Setup, an Atlanta firm that matches brands with marketing agencies, surveyed more than 400 brand and agency marketers in 2024 and asked brands why they ended agency relationships. The top answer, from 48%, was dissatisfaction with delivery. Dissatisfaction with value tied for second. A client does not end a contract over the quality of a video. A client ends it when the agency cannot show what the money bought.

The first task was finding out what our clients’ businesses needed, which was not always what they asked us for. A dental practice asks for a new website. The practice needs new patients. A website is where a patient decides to book, and it does nothing for a patient who does not arrive. Search and organic content could bring those patients in, but that took months, and many clients did not stay for months.

Across the web, a new page starts with almost no visitors from search. Ahrefs, a company that makes search-engine research tools, checked about 14 billion pages in its index in 2023 and found that 96.55% got no traffic from Google at all.

Monthly search traffic to web pages Horizontal bar chart. Of about 14 billion pages, 96.55 percent get no traffic from Google, 1.94 percent get one to ten visits a month, and 1.51 percent get more than ten. SHARE OF PAGES, BY MONTHLY VISITS FROM GOOGLE No visits 1 to 10 visits More than 10 96.55% 1.94% 1.51%
Fig. 1 Monthly traffic from Google across about 14 billion pages. Almost every page on the web gets no search visitors at all, and a new local business site starts there. Ahrefs, 2023.

The missing piece was traffic we could buy, aim and count. Paid ads send a chosen audience to a chosen page on a chosen day, and the platforms report what each visitor did next. Content builds attention slowly and pays off over months. Ads rent attention now and show what it was worth. A client who gets both sees the content working and sees the leads it produced.

CONTENTBuilds attention slowlyPays off over monthsPAID ADSRent attention nowShow what it was worth+

We weren’t alone in the struggle, and the pattern of the problem was historically evident. In 1990 Frederick Reichheld of Bain & Company and Earl Sasser of Harvard Business School studied customer defection in service businesses for the Harvard Business Review. Cutting defections by 5% raised profits 85% in one bank’s branch system, 50% in an insurance brokerage and 30% in an auto-service chain. A client who stays costs nothing to win again. An agency spends weeks of calls, proposals and onboarding to win each client, so the same math applies.

Profit gain from cutting customer defections by 5 percent Horizontal bar chart. Cutting defections by 5 percent raised profits 85 percent in a bank branch system, 50 percent in an insurance brokerage, and 30 percent in an auto-service chain. PROFIT GAIN FROM 5% FEWER DEFECTIONS Bank branches Insurance broker Auto service +85% +50% +30%
Fig. 2 How much profit rose when three service businesses cut the share of customers leaving by 5%. Reichheld & Sasser, "Zero Defections," Harvard Business Review, 1990.

My side of the marketing funnel was the bottom: the website, where a visitor decides to call or book. I designed and built those pages, and I knew what makes a page convert. The business demanded the top of the funnel too, the ads that bring strangers to that page, and I did not know ads. Learning a second trade that late felt like a step backward. It let me see the whole funnel, from a stranger scrolling past an ad to a client’s phone ringing. Before we sold ads to anyone, we had to name exactly what we needed and price it honestly.

THE WHOLE FUNNELA strangerscrolls pastan adthe top of thefunnelA page thatconvertsthe bottom, whereI workedA client’sphone rings

The price came in three parts. The first was my time. We started with the point of highest leverage: Meta, the Facebook and Instagram ad platform where our content converted. I learned it myself, on our own campaigns and after hours, because I could not hire someone for work I could not judge. The second was client money. Ad budgets belong to the client, so every mistake made while learning spends someone else’s dollars. The third was the price of a lead. WordStream, an ad-software company, put the 2025 average cost per lead on Meta at $27.66, with $16.61 for real estate and $76.71 for dentists. A client spending $1,500 a month buys about 54 leads at the average price. Whether 54 leads is a good month depends on what one customer is worth to that client, and we needed that number before we promised anything.

Average cost per lead on Meta lead campaigns, 2025, by industry Horizontal bar chart. Real estate 16.61 dollars, legal services 18.17 dollars, the all-industry average 27.66 dollars, physicians and surgeons 47.47 dollars, and dentists 76.71 dollars. AVERAGE COST PER LEAD, META LEAD CAMPAIGNS, 2025 Real estate Legal All industries Physicians Dentists $16.61 $18.17 $27.66 $47.47 $76.71
Fig. 3 What one lead cost on Meta in 2025. The same budget buys more than four times as many leads for a real estate agent as for a dental practice. WordStream, Facebook Ads Benchmarks 2025.

My website skills turned out to be the advantage. The same WordStream data put the average conversion rate for Meta lead campaigns at 7.72%. A landing page that converts at 10% instead cuts the cost of every lead by almost a quarter. Most ad buyers send traffic to whatever page the client already has. We built the page. Ads and web together sold one number a client could hold us to: cost per lead.

The tracking had to work first, so we started where we controlled the most. The first campaigns went to clients whose websites we built. We owned the landing page, the forms and the tracking, so a bad result pointed at the ads and not at a page we could not change. Tracking went in before any money went out. Every campaign launched with conversions tracked on the forms and the phone buttons, so the first dollar produced a number.

ON THE SITES WE BUILT, WE OWNEDThe landing pageThe formsThe trackingin before any money went out, so the first dollar produced anumber

The content side of the agency fed the ads: the videos we already shot for our clients every month became their ad creative. An ads-only shop has to buy or beg for creative. We had a camera crew on the account. The two services stopped being separate line items and became one system: content made the ads, the ads brought traffic, and the site turned traffic into leads.

Watch daily, change weekly, report monthly Three columns. Watch daily: tracking, spend pace, rejected ads. Change weekly: budgets, audiences, creative. Report monthly: leads, cost per lead, booked customers. WATCH DAILY CHANGE WEEKLY REPORT MONTHLY Tracking still firing Spend on pace Rejected ads Budgets Audiences Creative Leads Cost per lead Booked customers
Fig. 4 Checking and changing run on different clocks. Daily checks catch what is broken. Weekly changes give the platforms enough data to learn. Monthly reports speak in the client's numbers.

Every day we checked for a broken funnel: tracking that stopped firing, spend running ahead of pace, ads the platform rejected. We split watching from changing, because Meta’s delivery system needs about 50 conversions in seven days to leave its learning phase, and large edits send the ad set back to the start. A manager who edits every morning keeps a campaign stuck in learning and pays the higher price of learning the whole time. Once a week we changed strategy, based on cost per lead. Once a month we reported to the client in the client’s own numbers: leads, cost per lead and the customers those leads became.

WHAT EDITING EVERY MORNING DOESA manageredits everymorningThe ad setgoes back tothe startThe campaignkeeps learningand pays thehigher price oflearning

The monthly report plugged the leak. A client who reads a line like “42 leads at $61 each, 9 became patients” knows what the agency did. The content and the website finally had a number attached to them.

A LINE IN THE MONTHLY REPORTLeads, at $61 each42Became patients9

I had to get myself out of the work. I could not stay the ads department and run operations at the same time. Andy Grove, who ran Intel, wrote in High Output Management that the output of a manager is the output of the teams under that manager’s influence. An hour I spent in one client’s campaign improved one client’s results. An hour I spent writing a playbook or training a hire improved every account that person touched.

AN HOUR IN ONE CLIENT’SCAMPAIGNImproved oneclient’s resultsAN HOUR WRITING APLAYBOOK OR TRAINING AHIREImproved everyaccount that persontouched

Delegation came last on purpose. Learning ads myself is what let me write the playbooks, hire the first people and tell good work from bad. The assessment routine made the handoff safe. The new team ran the same daily, weekly and monthly checks, and the numbers showed within days if something slipped. Grove warned against handing off work and walking away, which he called abdication. We handed it off and kept watching the numbers. Paid ads is now a standing department at Social Habit, running Meta and Google campaigns for clients without me in the accounts.

ABDICATIONHand off work and walkawayWHAT WE DIDHanded it off and keptwatching the numbers

The bucket leaked because we sold effort and clients bought results. Paid ads did not replace the content or the websites. They showed each client our contribution to the bottom line: the leads, what each lead cost and the customers those leads became. A service business keeps a client when the client can count what the service produced. Find the number the client cares about, learn the skill that produces it well enough to judge it, measure it every week, then hand it to people who do it every day.

Find the number the client cares aboutLearn the skill that produces it well enough tojudge itMeasure it every weekHand it to people who do it every day

Sources

  1. Sixth annual survey of more than 400 brand and agency marketers; 48% of clients named dissatisfaction with delivery as the top reason for ending an agency relationship, and dissatisfaction with value tied for second. Setup, Marketing Relationship Survey, 2024. setup.us
  2. 96.55% of about 14 billion pages in Ahrefs’ Content Explorer index get no traffic from Google; 1.94% get one to ten visits a month. Tim Soulo, Ahrefs, 2023. ahrefs.com
  3. Reducing defections by 5% raised profits 85% in one bank’s branch system, 50% in an insurance brokerage and 30% in an auto-service chain. Frederick F. Reichheld and W. Earl Sasser Jr., “Zero Defections: Quality Comes to Services,” Harvard Business Review, September–October 1990. hbr.org
  4. Average cost per lead of $27.66 and conversion rate of 7.72% across industries for Meta (Facebook) leads campaigns; cost per lead of $16.61 for real estate, $18.17 for attorneys and legal services, $47.47 for physicians and surgeons and $76.71 for dentists and dental services. Medians from 726 US campaigns run between April 2024 and June 2025. Susie Marino, WordStream, “Facebook Ads Benchmarks 2025.” wordstream.com
  5. An ad set generally needs about 50 optimization events within seven days to exit the learning phase; significant edits restart it. Meta Business Help Center, “About the learning phase.” facebook.com
  6. “The output of a manager is the output of the organizational units under his or her supervision or influence”; delegation without follow-through described as abdication. Andrew S. Grove, High Output Management, 1983.

© 2026 Eric Baik. All rights reserved.